Trump Ousts Nicolás Maduro: A Special GCaM Edition

Dear all,

We welcome you to the Greater Caribbean Monitor (GCaM). Happy New Year, first and foremost.

As you know, GCaM was not scheduled to return until next week. However, in light of today’s events, a special edition is warranted. Today, on the sixth anniversary of General Qassem Soleimani’s killing, Nicolás Maduro has fallen.

In a covert operation carried out in the early hours of January 3, without a single U.S. casualty, the Venezuelan dictator was overthrown, captured, and extradited to the United States, along with his wife, Cilia Flores, former president of Venezuela’s National Assembly.

According to sources at the U.S. Department of Defense, the operation had been planned for months, with the timing carefully chosen to minimize the risk of civilian casualties. That objective was achieved. The most significant damage reported was the destruction of some military targets and the mausoleum housing the remains of former dictator Hugo Chávez. Regardless of one’s position on the intervention itself, today is a day of celebration for the Venezuelan people—both those still in the country and the vast diaspora forced into exile by the regime.

That said, our role is not to approach geopolitics romantically. Amid the media noise, rumors, euphoria, and outrage, our responsibility is to provide the most accurate, vetted, and cross-checked information available. In that effort, President Trump himself added clarity during his press conference, confirming speculation by stating that the United States will temporarily run the country to ensure a successful transition.

Below, we lay out what we know, what we do not know, what is being speculated, and what may come next.

What we know so far (with certainty)

• Trump publicly claimed the U.S. carried out a “large-scale strike” in Venezuela and that Nicolás Maduro and Cilia Flores were captured and flown out of the country. 

• U.S. AG Pam Bondi publicly said Maduro and Flores would face charges in New York; Sources report Maduro was being flown to New York, which Trump confirmed would eventually happen.

• Sen. Tom Cotton said some Americans were wounded and a helicopter was hit (no U.S. deaths were reported in that account, as was confirmed by Trump). 

• Delcy Rodríguez is in Russia, and the episode has triggered a fast-moving legitimacy and succession dispute. 

• Trump confirmed the U.S. is going to run the country until it can assure a transition. He hinted that Secretary Hegseth and Rubio will be key in this transition but did not specify how it will be enforced or when it will happen.

• Trump stated that “bad elements” of the Venezuelan government are still in power there but are “behaving very differently now” than they were a couple of days ago.

• Trump also stated it will be “very hard” for María Corina Machado to “lead the country” since she lacks internal support in Venezuela.

• The president also confirmed that the U.S. will have “boots on the ground,” taking over oil operations now in the hands of the Venezuelan regime.

What we think we know, but it’s speculated:

• The operation’s speed and outcome imply some level of internal stand-down, confusion, or passive cooperation by parts of Venezuela’s security apparatus; that remains an inference, not proven. Venezuelan opposition leaders reportedly claim it was a negotiated capture.

• The chain of command inside Chavismo is unclear and may already be fragmenting into competing “continuity” claims vs. survival exits. 

• The “Russia/China as exit-managers” idea is plausible but not confirmed; what’s visible is Russia-linked positioning (Delcy Rodríguez in Russia), while China’s role is still mostly interpretive fog, although Chinese authorities met with Maduro hours before the operation to, reportedly, offer support to the former president.

What we think happened:

• This looks less like a clean “decapitation strike” and more like an extraction under duress. The regime’s inner circle likely cut losses, and Maduro, seeing the abandonment, accepted removal to avoid an unwinnable internal rupture.

• The clearest signal is the speed with which the regime’s narrative pivoted from denial to disputes over legitimacy and demands for “proof.” At the same time, the movements and communications of senior figures became central to the story—Delcy Rodríguez abroad and competing messages emerging from Caracas.

• If Russia (and possibly China) were involved, the logic appears transactional rather than ideological: managing risk by protecting sunk investments, intelligence networks, and personnel, prioritizing a predictable transition over a chaotic collapse or martyrdom. This remains an inference, not something explicitly confirmed by public reporting.

What might happen in the next days

• Competing legitimacy claims: a Chavista continuity attempt vs. opposition demands for a transition framework. Expect dueling declarations and competing legal narratives.

• Security-sector stabilization or splintering will likely become the center of gravity. Whoever controls barracks messaging and intelligence coordination will shape whether this becomes orderly or chaotic. 

• Russia appears to be maneuvering to secure safe passage and protect key assets like VP Rodríguez, while the United States moves quickly to shape the rules and sequencing of a political transition.

• If Washington demonstrates that it can force rapid political outcomes with limited, targeted pressure in its own hemisphere, it may alter perceptions of U.S. resolve and willingness to take risks. Still, Ukraine and Taiwan operate in vastly different military and political contexts, making direct analogies misleading.

So far, the operation closely resembles what we anticipated. This was not a full-scale military invasion, but a highly calculated and complex effort aimed at removing the head of the regime, striking key military targets to display force and protect the extradition convoy, and allowing the remaining pieces to collapse on their own. That process is now likely underway. While some have speculated that this is the furthest the United States is willing to go—and while that argument may sound prudent—it is unlikely to hold. A power vacuum is emerging, and Washington will almost certainly seek to shape how it is filled.

Much will unfold in the coming days, weeks, and months. The GCaM team will be fully engaged, bringing you the most rigorous analysis and carefully curated information as events develop. For now, it is worth noting that this marks a hopeful start to 2026 for the Venezuelan people, who—let us not forget—were denied a more peaceful transition after the 2024 elections.

We wish you all a strong start to the year. Stay tuned.

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Best,