Off the Rails

Dear all,

We welcome you to the Greater Caribbean Monitor (GCaM).

In this issue, you will find:

• Mexico’s Tren Maya Is Headed Down the Wrong Track

• Violence and Fragmentation at the End of Petro’s Colombia

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Best,

The GCaM Team

Mexico’s former president Andrés Manuel López Obrador’s (AMLO) flagship infrastructure project, the Tren Maya, began operations at the end of 2023. Conceived as a logistics and tourism backbone for the country, the railway was promoted as a catalyst for development in Mexico’s economically disadvantaged south, where the gap with the industrialized north remains stark.

Panorama. The Maya Train is one of the most expensive infrastructure undertakings in Mexico’s history. Beyond its environmental impact, mounting evidence suggests that the costs far outweigh the expected benefits.

• The project’s budget has ballooned from MXN 150 billion to over MXN 500 billion, despite AMLO’s early assurances that it would be both profitable and low-cost.

• Initially designed to rely on public-private partnerships, the financial burden has instead fallen almost entirely on the federal government.

Why It Matters. The Federal Audit Office has documented multiple irregularities in contracting and project execution, many of which remain unresolved.

• The project was later transferred to the Ministry of Defense (Sedena), framed under “national security” to expedite its rollout—at the expense of rigorous oversight and transparency.

• Military management and opaque procurement processes have created fertile ground for corruption. While financial reports are published, the project’s accounting has become increasingly obscure.

What’s Next. The federal government will face mounting fiscal strain as the project expands. Without sustained subsidies and robust tourism or freight demand, the financial viability of the railway remains in doubt.

• Successive administrations may be forced into difficult fiscal maneuvering to keep the system afloat. For now, the Maya Train resembles a financial time bomb—symbolizing not just Mexico’s infrastructure ambitions but also the risks of opacity and clientelism.

• President Claudia Sheinbaum has recently brought renewed attention to the project by announcing her intention to explore extending the Maya Train into Guatemala and Belize, after holding meetings with both presidents.

• These statements have pushed the project back into headlines, underlining both its regional ambitions and the financial and political uncertainties that continue to surround it.

Bottom Line. Ultimately, the clearest winners lie in AMLO’s inner circle. Through influence-laden contracts and limited transparency, the project has consolidated benefits for political allies while leaving taxpayers exposed.

• The Tren Maya now stands less as a vehicle for development than as a monument to how state resources can be leveraged to entrench political patronage, with long-term costs for Mexico’s economic future.

Colombia’s upcoming elections are unfolding amid severe political polarization. Following the assassination of presidential candidate Miguel Uribe Turbay, the right has been left scrambling for leadership. With no clear frontrunner on either side of the political spectrum, voters face a crossroads marked by strained institutions, high levels of violence, and economic instability.

Panorama. President Gustavo Petro’s administration is drawing to a turbulent close, worn down by scandal and an inability to contain spiraling violence.

• Petro resorted to a plebiscite to push forward his flagship labor reform, which was eventually approved in Congress and presented as a historic victory for workers.

• Yet the corruption scandal involving his son, Nicolás Petro—accused of receiving illicit funds during the campaign—undermined the government’s anti-corruption narrative and eroded the credibility of Petro’s political project.

Why It Matters. Colombian politics heading into 2026 are defined by fragmentation, with no clear leadership emerging on either the left or the right.

• Iván Cepeda has rallied support from the most radical wing of “petrismo,” but remains too distant from the political center to consolidate the left. Other figures on that spectrum include Gustavo Bolívar, Petro’s closest ally, and María José Pizarro, who carries the guerrilla legacy of the M-19.

• The assassination of Miguel Uribe magnified perceptions of insecurity and fueled calls for change, but his father, Miguel Uribe Londoño, has not inherited his son’s electoral appeal.

• On the right, María Fernanda Cabal—a staunch representative of orthodox uribismo—and Paloma Valencia, a senator with a prominent political lineage, are positioning themselves as their bloc’s strongest candidates despite internal tensions.

What’s Next. Both left and right will face three major challenges as the 2026 elections approach. The ruling coalition must contend with inflation, unmet economic promises, and a credibility gap that hampers efforts to persuade voters with new social agendas.

• The right’s central test will be to craft a compelling security narrative that promises firmness in dealing with FARC dissidents and other armed groups, without reverting to past authoritarianism.

• Anti-corruption, while overshadowed by violence and economic concerns, is likely to become a key theme for the right, reinforcing its message of change.

Bottom Line. The 2026 elections will unfold in a landscape shaped by Petro’s economic and political exhaustion and the left’s inability to produce a unifying leader.

• Colombia’s right has an opportunity to harness citizen discontent through a clear security-and-order platform, bolstered by an anti-corruption message.

• Ultimately, the elections could mark a turning point: a punitive vote against the Colombian left, signaling the waning momentum of South America’s “pink tide.”

What We’re Watching 🔎 . . .

Latin America’s Opportunity in the AI Race [link]

Eduardo Levy Yeyati, Americas Quarterly

In the rivalry between Washington and Beijing over dominance in artificial intelligence (AI), Latin America risks becoming trapped in a new form of technological dependency.

The U.S. is pushing a hegemonic model that imposes its own standards, exports integrated solutions, and excludes competitors while strengthening its domestic economy. By contrast, China promotes a multilateral governance framework for AI as a “global public good,” offering infrastructure and technology transfers to the Global South.

Yet blindly adopting either model could undermine regional sovereignty and innovation. Confronted with this dilemma, Latin America is leaning toward a third way: digital non-alignment. Initiatives such as LatamGPT in Chile and Brazil’s AI strategy seek to build sovereign development through hybrid infrastructure and regional cooperation. By creating common frameworks, pooling capabilities, and fostering an autonomous ecosystem, the region has an opportunity to capture investment and technological gains from both powers—without ceding control over its digital future.

The devastating global boom in narcotics [link]

Financial Times

The global drug trade has reached unprecedented levels, driven by soaring cocaine profits and the rise of fentanyl. These revenues have allowed cartels to diversify into illegal mining, human trafficking, and wildlife smuggling, undermining state authority in countries such as Mexico, Venezuela, and Syria. The fallout has been stark: rising homicide rates, deepening corruption, and environmental destruction, with Costa Rica emerging as one of the latest examples.

Despite the evident failure of the “war on drugs,” proposals for legalization by leaders such as Gustavo Petro remain highly controversial, often downplaying the lethal and addictive effects of these substances. In contrast, the Financial Times argues that Europe and the U.S.—the primary consumer markets—must combine large-scale educational campaigns with robust policing efforts. As with tobacco, only by reducing demand can criminal networks be effectively weakened.