Nukes, Democracy and Other Drugs

Dear all,

We welcome you to the Greater Caribbean Monitor (GCaM).

In this issue, you will find:

• Venezuela and Iran’s Nuclear Bond

• Why Washington Is Eyeing Guatemala’s Ports

• Bolivia’s Political Reset Goes “Al-Right”

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Best,

The GCaM Team

The Trump administration’s determination to remove Nicolás Maduro extends far beyond dismantling a dictatorship; it is fundamentally about neutralizing what Washington views as the most serious national security threat to the United States in the Western Hemisphere.

In Perspective. Alarm bells rang in Miraflores earlier this month when Donald Trump announced a USD 50 million bounty—the highest ever offered by Washington—for the capture of Nicolás Maduro.

• Tensions escalated further this week with the deployment of aircraft, submarines, three destroyers, and 4,000 Marines to the southern Caribbean in a massive counternarcotics operation.

• Following the designation of cartels as transnational terrorist organizations, the move opens the door to the possibility of U.S. military intervention.

• Maduro, accused by Washington of leading the “Cartel de los Soles,” responded by claiming to mobilize 4.5 million militia members nationwide to “defend sovereignty.” Yet the pursuit of Maduro goes far beyond the drug war.

Why It Matters. Hezbollah’s presence in Latin America dates back to the Lebanese civil war, when waves of migration to South America enabled Tehran to infiltrate operatives into the region.

• It was only after the rise of chavismo in 1999 that Hezbollah established itself inside the Venezuelan state.

• Since then, Venezuela has become a hub of political, financial, and logistical support for the group. Reports from the U.S. Treasury Department and testimony by former Venezuelan UN ambassador Diego Arias confirm Hezbollah’s operations across the Tri-Border area and its expansion into Venezuela to facilitate cocaine trafficking.

• Hezbollah today serves as the chief ally of the Cartel of the Suns in transporting narcotics to Europe and West Africa, while also providing training, weapons, and logistical support to Venezuelan networks.

Yes, But. The greater concern for Washington, however, lies in Venezuela’s partnership with Iran in the mining sector.

• Joint ventures between Venezuela’s state miner Minerven and Iran’s Impasco, as well as Iranian-controlled projects like the Cerro Azul cement plant in the Orinoco region, reportedly produce up to 75,000 tons of uranium oxide annually.

• These shipments, moved via PDVSA tankers, are believed to feed Iran’s nuclear program. Restricted airspace, Iranian military presence, and testimonies from defected Venezuelan officers reinforce suspicions of covert nuclear collaboration.

The Bottom Line. Former U.S. diplomat Roger Noriega confirmed as early as 2011 that Venezuelan uranium was being channeled into Iran’s nuclear weapons effort. While uranium-238 requires enrichment to become fissile uranium-235, Venezuela’s role in supplying raw material remains critical.

• Prior to Operation Midnight Hammer, Iran had accumulated enough uranium reserves to produce an arsenal of up to nine nuclear bombs. Pentagon estimates suggest U.S. strikes delayed, but did not dismantle, this capacity.

• For Washington, dismantling the Maduro regime is no longer just about ending a dictatorship. It is about neutralizing Venezuela’s role in advancing Iran’s nuclear ambitions—an alliance that represents perhaps the most serious national security threat to the United States in the Western Hemisphere.

Spaces for cooperation between Guatemala and the United States in port management are consolidating.

• Beyond the differing views that may exist on the issue—particularly those tied to national sovereignty—it is evident that both countries share common concerns at the economic, security, and even public health levels regarding the current state of Guatemala’s port activity.

• Between August 25 and 29, Guatemala will receive a mission from the U.S. Coast Guard. The visit forms part of the International Port Security Program, which conducts evaluations in different countries and meets with the authorities responsible for this area.

Why It Matters. By June 2025, Guatemala’s economy registered imports totaling approximately USD 16.8 billion, a 6.1 percent increase compared to the same period in 2024, according to central bank figures. This dynamism underscores the port system as the backbone of the country’s commercial infrastructure.

• Yet institutional fragility has created a scenario of vulnerability: operational failures, outdated equipment, and the lack of effective controls not only raise costs through delays in terminal management but also increase the risk of disruptions that could escalate into food or energy crises.

On the Radar. The country’s trade backbone also faces another threat: organized crime. In 2024, cocaine seizures in Guatemala increased by 264 percent, jumping from 5 tons in 2023 to 18.2 tons in 2024. The surge highlights growing pressure on maritime transit routes.

• In Puerto Quetzal, Guatemala’s major port, a special security force mentored by the U.S. to strengthen container inspections has confiscated 2.4 tons of narcotics since its 2023 deployment. Between January and July 2024 alone, the Guatemalan Police Anti-Narcotics Division seized more than 10,740 kg of cocaine, 594 kg of marijuana, and other drugs valued at USD 195.5 million.

• In February 2024, another operation in Puerto Quetzal intercepted 525 packages of cocaine worth over USD 8 million. Likewise, in June 2025, 900 pounds of marijuana hidden in cardboard boxes bound for the Dominican Republic were seized in Santo Tomás de Castilla, another Guatemalan port.

• These episodes illustrate how Guatemala’s port system—long marked by institutional weakness and neglect—has been exploited by criminal networks.

Between the Lines. The U.S. Coast Guard’s involvement is not only a reflection of Washington’s geopolitical interest in the region, but also of its own vulnerability to drug trafficking and chemical precursor flows through Guatemalan ports. Added to this is the broader goal of facilitating secure hemispheric trade.

• A recent U.S. State Department report warned that “outdated controls on chemical imports and porous borders” make Guatemala particularly exposed.

• In a domestic environment where policies rarely outlast government terms, and where weak institutions and limited capacity constrain available courses of action, the consistency of U.S. geopolitical and security agendas—backed by its security forces—provides a reliable anchor for sustainable, long-term projects.

Bottom Line. In this context, cooperation with the United States might prove indispensable for Guatemala to mitigate risks in a port system that, despite its economic centrality and the progress achieved by the current administration in adopting international standards, remains highly vulnerable.

• The Coast Guard visit seeks not only to reinforce technical and operational controls, but also to consolidate a shared security agenda that transcends political cycles and contributes to stability for both Guatemala and the broader Western Hemisphere.

After nearly two decades, the electoral pendulum has swung back, handing the torch to Bolivia’s right.

• Amid a highly fragmented political landscape, marked by sharp polarization among the elites, two candidates advanced to a runoff: Rodrigo Paz, representing the center-right, and former President Jorge “Tuto” Quiroga, from the right.

• The pendulum between left and right has returned to its point of origin.

In Perspective. The left governed under Evo Morales during a period of economic boom in Latin America, when many governments rode the so-called “pink tide.”

• Morales’s redistributive project was financed by the surge in hydrocarbon and commodity prices throughout the 2000s.

• His long run in power was underpinned by Bolivia’s vast natural gas reserves and the rising global demand for raw materials driven by India and China.

• Yet behind Morales’s steady growth and expansive social programs lay a fragile foundation: spending that ignored the risks of falling commodity prices.

Between the Lines. Once that single card collapsed, the left—led by Morales—discovered that holding onto power was more costly than never having obtained it.

• The Bolivian electorate has since endured a harsh inflationary crisis triggered by fuel shortages and liquidity constraints. With both gas volumes and prices sharply reduced, the country no longer earns the foreign exchange needed to sustain past levels of public spending.

• This economic downturn was compounded by deep fractures within the left. Morales’s personalism prevented an orderly succession, splitting the electorate between weak candidates and a protest vote, with the former president even calling on supporters to cast null ballots.

• Institutional delegitimization, corruption scandals, and disarray within the movement ultimately drove the Bolivian left to defeat.

What’s Next. The right now faces its own challenges heading into the runoff and beyond. Quiroga, a veteran of Bolivia’s “neoliberal” era, struggles with the dilemma of unifying the country under an economic platform seen as divisive, though he appears to have the backing of the business elite.

• Paz Pereira, son of former president Paz Zamora, has gained traction through a unifying, anti-corruption message. His moderation makes him more adept at building alliances, though it could require concessions in his program to secure victory.

• Both candidates inherit a severe fiscal crisis that will likely demand shock policies, which could erode popularity in the short term.

The Bottom Line. The right has taken hold of Bolivia’s future in a sweeping victory.

• The rise in the price of near-term sovereign bonds suggests investors are betting on a return to fiscal orthodoxy.

• The winds appear to favor the right—but the true test will be whether it can consolidate power and build unity in a country deeply fractured.