Latin America’s Trumpian Gambit

Dear all,

We welcome you to the Greater Caribbean Monitor (GCaM).

In this issue, you will find:

• The Rise and Likely Fall of a New Guantanamo

• How Trump Is Shaping Latin America’s Regional Dynamics

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Quick Note: We will take a brief pause next week as our team enjoys a well-deserved break during the Holy Week celebrations. There will be no issue on Saturday, April 19, but we’ll be back with fresh insights on April 26. Thank you for reading our work every week, we look forward to reconnecting soon!

Best,

The GCaM Team

Bukele’s rise has sparked a new phenomenon in international politics: the externalization of violence control.

• His administration’s relentless securitization strategy has positioned El Salvador as a convenient testing ground for hardline security policies that the U.S. can no longer implement domestically—now projected onto Central America’s smallest nation, the perfect scapegoat.

Panorama. CECOT, the Salvadoran megaprison, has recently received numerous deported Venezuelans—allegedly linked to the Tren de Aragua gang—from the Trump administration in recent weeks.

• In El Salvador, detainees are not subject to U.S. rule-of-law standards, nor is their treatment easily audited by intermediary organizations. Trump may be leveraging this dynamic to reinforce his “Iron Fist” narrative—outsourcing tough-on-crime optics through El Salvador’s cooperation.

• Some of the Venezuelans are not convicted felons but simply deportees. The lack of rigorous screening procedures went so far that the White House admitted to having extradited—due to an “administrative error”—a Salvadoran citizen who was legally residing in Maryland and is now being held in CECOT.

• Trump’s strategy may aim to increase the risks and costs of unauthorized immigration by outsourcing detention to a foreign prison system. Meanwhile, Bukele could reap political benefits from such a collaboration. By partnering with the U.S., his regime strengthens its domestic legitimacy, securing external validation for its stringent security policies and solidifying his reputation as a strong and effective leader.

Between the Lines. El Salvador’s long-term political stability may be undermined by Trump’s pursuit of a short-term alliance.

• Bukele has drawn criticism from numerous international bodies and countries, including members of the Organization of American States, due to his increasingly autocratic governance, a trend likely to intensify.

• However, Trump’s support temporarily shields him from judicial processes related to allegations of crimes against humanity.

• The consequences of Bukele’s actions may not be apparent now, but after Trump’s term, a potential Democratic return to the White House or shifts within the Republican Party could leave El Salvador with few international allies.

In Conclusion. While the emergence of a new Guantanamo is possible, El Salvador’s prospects for a significant shift in status could be overshadowed by the U.S. judicial system, where a complex chain of events rests in the hands of American judges—many of whom appear to be increasingly opposed to the current president.

• Bukele’s success in combating organized crime has earned global recognition and powerful allies, reinforcing his grip on power.

• However, this protective shield increasingly resembles a ticking time bomb, one that the strongman has dangerously tucked under his pillow.

Latin America’s leaders rallied at this week’s CELAC summit in Tegucigalpa, Honduras, signaling a renewed push to counter U.S. influence under President Donald Trump. However, dissent from a few members exposed fractures in the region’s unity.

Why It Matters. The Summit marked the end of Honduras’ 2024-2025 Presidency Pro-Tempore on the body, led by President Xiomara Castro. Colombia, under President Gustavo Petro, will assume the presidency for 2025-2026.

• Though long seen as an irrelevant diplomatic body, CELAC is now striving to unite against harming U.S. policies, like Trump’s recently announced tariffs on regional exports.

• Even so, three member states rejected the summit’s final declaration—normally approved unanimously by all 33 CELAC members—thereby violating the principle of unanimous consensus established in Article 34 of the organization’s statutes.

Highlights. The region seeks to consolidate a front as strong as the one—particularly driven by leftist leaders and parties—that defined the first decade of the century. The U.S. has simultaneously acted as both a promoter of that unity and its main obstacle.

• While Honduras, Colombia, and two of the region’s three economic heavyweights—Mexico and Brazil—are aligned, the third, Argentina under Javier Milei, has made its dissent unmistakably clear.

• The declaration, in point two, rejects “the imposition of unilateral coercive measures [...] including those restricting international trade,” in reference to the tariffs. Argentina and Paraguay opposed the declaration citing this clause, though it’s evident their stance stems more from ideological sympathies—or lack thereof—toward Trump and other regional leaders than from purely commercial concerns.

• Nicaragua also rejected the declaration—though in its case, for not being forceful enough against “imperialism.” Unsurprisingly, Ortega’s regime, alongside Maduro’s, remains the most radical left-wing government within CELAC.

Between The Lines. El Salvador’s case stands out: despite being an unconditional U.S. ally, it opted for pragmatism and backed the declaration, which was subtle enough not to harm its friendship with Trump.

• Lula, Petro, and Castro have positioned themselves as the leading voices of resistance to Trump—alongside the more extreme Ortega.

• Sheinbaum, while supporting the consolidation of a united bloc, prefers to operate behind the scenes through bilateral negotiations that don’t tarnish her image with Trump.

• A recent example is her joint announcement with Guatemalan President Bernardo Arévalo that the Mayan Train will be rerouted through Belize to avoid impacting the Petén jungle—an initiative that also reflects broader efforts by Latin American leaders to integrate and strengthen regional commerce on their own terms.

What’s Next. The breach of the unanimity principle could weaken CELAC’s legitimacy in the long term if dissenting countries choose to more actively distance themselves.

• Even with a somewhat united front, the figure of Milei—and, to a lesser extent, Paraguay, El Salvador, and over-the-top radicals like Nicaragua—will complicate any formal multilateral effort to confront Trump.

Trump threatens sanctions, tariffs on Mexico in water dispute [link]

Ismail Shakil y Cassandra Garrison, Reuters

The Trump administration has intensified a decades-old water conflict with Mexico, warning of potential sanctions and tariffs over alleged violations of a 1944 bilateral treaty. The agreement requires Mexico to deliver 1.75 million acre-feet of water from the Rio Grande every five years, but U.S. officials claim less than 30% of the quota has been met, according to the International Boundary and Water Commission (IBWC).

President Trump has accused Mexico of “stealing Texas’ water,” citing severe impacts on farmers in the region. In response, Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum asserted that her country has complied with treaty provisions despite extreme drought conditions, while pledging immediate measures to boost water deliveries.

Mexico has agreed to an additional release of 122,000 acre-feet and is reviewing a further 81,000-acre-foot transfer—still falling short of its obligations. With tensions escalating, Sheinbaum faces mounting pressure to avert a full-blown trade confrontation.

State Dept upgrades travel advisory for El Salvador, considered safer than France, other European countries [link]

Danielle Wallace, Fox News

The U.S. State Department has elevated El Salvador to a Level 1 travel advisory—its safest classification—placing the Central American nation above popular destinations like France, the U.K., and Italy. The move follows the dramatic decline in homicides, gang violence, and crime over the past three years, a transformation President Nayib Bukele credits to his controversial state of emergency, in place since 2022 despite allegations of human rights abuses.

The upgrade comes days before Bukele’s scheduled meeting with former President Donald Trump at the White House, where discussions are expected to focus on security cooperation, including the potential use of El Salvador’s mega-prisons to house deported migrants—particularly members of the Venezuelan gang Tren de Aragua.

While El Salvador now boasts one of the lowest homicide rates in Latin America, it also holds the world’s highest per capita incarceration rate, raising questions about the long-term sustainability of Bukele’s heavy-handed approach. The White House talks could signal a strategic alignment on immigration and crime, even as critics warn of democratic backsliding.